lolgaxe wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
The loss of NY-9 didn't happen in a vacuum.
I'm not saying Murphy is the sole reason, just that you could probably assign a lot of the blame on his behavior.
You mean Weiner?
There's some instances of a seat flipping after a scandal. There's also plenty of instances of the seat remaining after a scandal: PA-2 stayed blue after Rep Fattah was convicted of fraud, IL-18 stayed red after Shock was forced to resign over ethics issues, NY-11 stayed red after Grimm's tax evasion conviction, FL-19 stayed red after Radel's cocaine conviction, IL-2 stayed blue after Jackson's ethics scandals and FBI investigation, etc. OR-1 stayed blue after Rep Wu resigned following reports of him making se
xual advances on a teenage girl if you need a s
ex scandal related special election (a lot more people resign over ethics/fraud charges than s
ex-related ones).
I think a scandal can help make a bad situation worse or shake the needle a little but it's not the primary reason for a flip unless it was already a close swing district.